The newsletter is a roundup of financial news, investment status, and other financial trivia, giving you the insight you need to manage your money in any economic situation.

The US Economic Surprise Index shows worrying data. It is a measure used by analysts and traders to assess whether US economic data is better or worse than expected. This index compares actual data, such as unemployment, inflation, GDP growth and other economic indicators, with the expectations previously forecast by economists and analysts.

When actual data is better than expected, the index rises, indicating a positive surprise. Conversely, when actual data are worse than expected, the index falls, indicating a negative surprise. What can we observe?

Source: Blomberg

Unemployment rate rises unexpectedly

The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest level since October 2021, an important signal for Federal Reserve officials when deciding the next step in monetary policy.

The unemployment rate has surpassed its 36-month moving average. This development has happened 10 times since 1952. Each time, it has led to a recession.

Source: TheGame of Trades

Interest rate cuts coming soon? Citi Bank says the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates eight times in a row, by a total of 200 basis points, starting in September.

Source: Fortune.com

The second largest liquidation event in Bitcoin history

On-chain data from the cryptocurrency space confirms that the second largest liquidation event in bitcoin history is currently underway, after the FTX crash in November 2022. This is happening at a time when Germany is selling $3.5 billion of seized $BTC, and Mt. Gox is starting to pay back $8.5 billion to creditors, with most of it expected to be sold.

Source: Twitter

Commodities are becoming increasingly important for countries

Canada warned the mining industry on Thursday that any major deals targeting the country’s producers of key minerals will only be approved in the “most exceptional circumstances”. The government has identified 31 minerals, including copper, lithium and nickel, which it considers key because of their strategic use in modern technology and energy transition, such as in batteries for electric vehicles.

The Reserve Bank of India increased its gold reserves

India’s central bank last month increased its gold reserves by the most in almost two years, adding more than nine tonnes of gold to its reserves. This is the most since July 2022 and means that India’s reserves have increased by 37 tonnes this year to a total of 841 tonnes.

Silver outperforms gold

A global supply shortage and bets on rising demand helped silver outperform gold, copper and other financial assets in the second quarter. Silver has lagged gold quite aggressively over the past two years. The market is now becoming aware not only of silver’s ‘precious’ properties, but also of its industrial uses. The key players in the silver market are on the investment side, particularly in silver ETFs.

A reduction in US interest rates could strengthen the case for higher silver prices, while uncertainty over the upcoming US presidential election and the wider geopolitical environment should also support higher silver prices

Silver the best investment since the start of the year

Source: Deutsche Bank

After breaking a 13-year support two months ago, the gold/silver ratio appears to be in the early stages of a downtrend.

Although we firmly believe that, historically, gold is still attractive given the money supply and the current lack of fiscal discipline, we believe that it is no more undervalued and asymmetric than silver in this macroeconomic environment.

Source: Tavi Costa

What do silver, gold and platinum coins look like together? 1 ounce silver, 1 ounce gold, 1 ounce platinum.

Their density level:

• Platinum (Pt): ~21.45 g/cm³
• Gold (Au): ~19.32 g/cm³
• Silver (Ag): ~10.49 g/cm³

Source: Twitter

A topical question that many may soon be asking themselves…

Probably none of us has enough silver 🙂

The newsletter “Financial insights and trivia” does not constitute an investment advisory service. Its content does not constitute recommendations to buy or offers to buy, but is intended to inform the public about developments in the financial field. Past returns are not a guarantee of future returns. Please consult a financial adviser for advice.